When Jake Osgathorpe, Premier League tipster and resident analyst at Sky Bet released his latest Premier League betting tips for Matchday 6, the spotlight instantly fell on the Saturday 15:00 BST clash between Crystal Palace and Liverpool. The recommendation that stole the headlines? A 3/1 shot on Will Hughes receiving a yellow card.
Why this tip matters
Osgathorpe’s season‑to‑date record reads like a betting textbook: from 54.5 points staked he has collected 75.98 points, translating into a +21.48‑point profit and a 39 % return on investment. Those numbers aren’t just impressive; they give weight to every selection he puts forward, especially when the stakes are as high as a Liverpool‑Palace showdown.
Historical backdrop
The fixture is slated for Matchday 6 of the 2025/26 Premier League seasonSelhurst Park, London. Liverpool have turned late goals into a trademark this campaign – six of their seven victories have been sealed after the 80th minute. Their bench depth and mental fortitude have made the final‑ten‑minutes a nightmare for opponents.
Crystal Palace, on the other hand, ride a 17‑game unbeaten run across all competitions. That streak includes a 2024 Community Shield win over Liverpool and a hard‑fought league draw last season, proving they can grind out results against top‑flight foes.
Osgathorpe’s detailed predictions
Beyond the headline card‑warning, Osgathorpe lines up a few more selections:
- Result: Crystal Palace 1‑1 Liverpool at 6/1 (Sky Bet, odds captured 11:30 BST on 26 Sept 2025).
- Draw option at 10/11 for those who think the game will stay level.
- Will Hughes yellow card – 3/1 odds, based on a disciplinary rate of 0.76 cards per 90 minutes this season.
He backs the draw because Palace’s defensive solidity matches Liverpool’s propensity for late comebacks. "Liverpool’s late‑game heroics are a double‑edged sword," Osgathorpe told Sky Bet’s editorial team. "They win, but they also leave openings that disciplined sides like Palace can exploit. The question is whether the Reds can keep pulling miracles after the 80th minute."
Disciplinary focus: Will Hughes
The Hughes card market is where Osgathorpe finds value. The midfielder has already booked four yellows in six English‑opposition matches this season. Last campaign he racked up 11 cards, averaging 0.47 per 90 minutes, making him the most consistently penalised Palace player.
Only Sasa Lukic has collected more top‑flight yellows since the start of the 2024/25 season, but Lukic’s odds never drift beyond 2/1, suggesting bookmakers undervalue Hughes. Osgathorpe notes that Hughes was also booked in a tightly contested encounter with Liverpool last season, a match decided by a solitary goal.
Market reactions and odds snapshot
At the time of writing, the betting market reflects Osgathorpe’s insights:
- Crystal Palace win – 12/5
- Liverpool win – 5/4
- Both teams to score – 15/8
- Will Hughes to be carded – 3/1 (best price across UK bookmakers)
These numbers suggest the market is pricing in Liverpool’s late‑game edge but also acknowledges Palace’s defensive resilience.
Broader impact on Osgathorpe’s Super 6 portfolio
His Super 6 picks for the previous weekend featured a mix of straight‑win and “player‑action” selections, including Southampton 0‑2 Manchester City and Wolves 2‑1 Brighton. The consistent thread? A focus on low‑risk, high‑value markets – exactly the approach he carries into this match.
By emphasizing a specific player‑discipline market, Osgathorpe diversifies his exposure. Even if the 1‑1 draw doesn’t materialise, a Hughes card would still deliver a tidy return, cushioning the overall ticket.
What this means for bettors
If you’re looking for a single‑ticket play, the Hughes yellow card is the most attractive odds‑to‑risk ratio. However, seasoned punters might combine it with a modest stake on the draw, capitalising on two relatively independent outcomes.
For those who prefer outright results, the 6/1 draw offers a decent upside given the tactical matchup. Palace’s recent form suggests they’ll sit deep, while Liverpool’s knack for snatching late winners means the game is unlikely to stay deadlocked for long – exactly the scenario Osgathorpe predicts.
What’s next for the clubs?
After the Selhurst Park test, Liverpool travel to Anfield for a high‑stakes showdown against Arsenal. Their ability to maintain late‑minute stamina will be under a microscope, especially if the Hughes card proves right and they lose a midfielder to suspension.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, aim to extend their unbeaten record into the New Year. A draw keeps the momentum alive, but a win would catapult them into a top‑six chase that has seemed unlikely a few months ago.
Key takeaways
- Jake Osgathorpe’s season ROI sits at 39 % – a benchmark for tipsters.
- Will Hughes’ disciplinary record makes a 3/1 card bet the value play.
- Both teams are likely to finish 1‑1, offering a 6/1 payout.
- Late‑game dynamics favour Liverpool, but Palace’s defence could nullify the threat.
- Combining the Hughes card with a modest draw stake maximises potential return while limiting risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Will Hughes card bet affect my overall ticket?
A successful Hughes yellow‑card at 3/1 delivers a 200 % profit on the stake placed. Because the card market is largely independent of the final result, you can still cash in on a draw or a win‑lose outcome while protecting your ticket from a total loss.
Why is a 1‑1 draw considered a realistic scoreline?
Palace have kept clean sheets in eight of their last ten matches, while Liverpool concede late goals but also score after the 80th minute. The combination of a solid Palace defence and Liverpool’s tendency to finish games strongly points to a level result.
What impact could a Hughes suspension have on Palace’s next game?
If Hughes picks up a second yellow and serves a suspension, Palace lose a key midfield engine. That could force them to reshuffle their core, potentially weakening their ability to shield the back line in upcoming fixtures like the Tottenham clash.
How reliable is Jake Osgathorpe’s ROI as an indicator of future success?
A 39 % ROI over a full season shows consistent edge, especially when compared to the typical 5‑10 % profit margins seen among bookmakers. While past performance isn’t a guarantee, it does suggest his analytical framework is robust.
What are the odds of Liverpool maintaining their late‑goal streak?
Statistically, Liverpool have scored after the 80th minute in six of seven games this season – roughly an 86 % occurrence. However, fatigue and tighter opposition defenses could see the trend dip as the season progresses.
Sihle Tana
I am a journalist with a passion for covering daily news in Africa. My work has taken me across the continent, reporting on significant events and stories that impact communities. I strive to bring insightful and comprehensive news coverage to my readers.
Osgathorpe’s ROI of 39 % is, undeniably, a testament to statistical rigor; such a figure eclipses the average bookmaker margin by a substantial margin. The 3/1 odds on Will Hughes’ card reflect a disciplined exploitation of low‑frequency events.